On Saturday night, Gennady Golovkin and Sergiy Derevyanchenko will meet at Madison Square Garden. One of them will leave with the IBF middleweight title that was vacated after Canelo Alvarez defeated Daniel Jacobs in May.
The fight, broadcast on the DAZN streaming platform should be a competitive bout. Derevyanchenko gave Daniel Jacobs all he can handle in his split decision loss just over a year ago on October 27, 2018. Golovkin, since losing to Canelo in their rematch just over a year ago, has only fought once, against Steve Rolls in June, earning a knockout victory in the fourth round.
As part of DAZN’s unprecedented fall schedule, the GGG vs. Derevyanchenko fight can provide a profit for sports bettors if they know where to look. According to the boxing odds at MyBookie, Golovkin is a -450 favorite (bet $450 to win $100), while Derevyanchenko is a +350 underdog (bet $100 to win $350). The value in this fight isn’t on the moneyline or necessarily picking the winner. Conventional wisdom and high probability is that Golovkin is going to win this fight. While there isn’t value in betting the win at -450, there are certain bets where you can pick up a few bucks.
While the offerings are limited, there are bets that provide value. Here are three of them.
1. Gennady Golovkin By Decision or Technical Decision +138 (bet $100 to win $138). Anytime you feel a specific fighter is going to win and you look at the line value attached to that victory, anytime you can get underdog odds, you can’t pass it up. In this case, Golovkin to win by KO TKO or DQ is +105, so while both method of victories are underdogs, the later being almost even money, what we’re counting on here is Derevyanchenko’s ability to whether Golovkin’s storm and take this fight to the scorecards.
2. Fight to go the distance -138 (bet $138 to win $100). Since we’re already betting that Golovkin is going to win a decision, we might as well double down on the fight going the distance. Consistent with what I expressed above regarding the fight ending in a knockout, the fight not to go the distance is at +100. It doesn’t get anymore even money than that. We’re going with the fight going the distance.
3. Golovkin to win in round seven +1200 (bet $100 to win $1200). This is a hedge in a way because if Golovkin is going to end the fight early, the probability is at its highest in rounds five, six, seven and eight. With an 87 percent KO ratio in 41 fights, having fought a total of 200 rounds, Golovkin’s sweet spot for ending fights are in the fifth round on average. Some early knockouts in the beginning of his career against lesser opposition have probably skewed this a bit, however, I would say that round seven could be the end of the night for Derevyanchenko if he’s not able to withstand Golovkin’s power. The value is too great to pass up and if we’re wrong, we’re still ending the night ahead with a Golovkin victory and the fight going the distance. If this bet hits, then we’re certainly ahead at +1200.
Whatever you do with this information, please bet responsibly.